Cheap I know....

...but I didn't get around to writing this piece until right now when the sweet 16 is already in place. However, props to Broc for pointing out that the Big East is ( * )( * ) and was going to run a muck in the tourney. The Big East is 10-2 to this point and either one of the five teams left could hit a hot streak and find themselves in the final four. Here's how I see each match up breaking down.

Midwest -

Louisville vs. Arizona:

Everyone's immediate reaction is Louisville, but do not underestimate this Arizona team. They've made the tourney for the past 100 years and understand that each game is a one game season...loser does wind sprints.

The problem with picking this upset is easy, nothing really jumps out at you when you look at Arizona. They have an overly-lame assist-TO ratio, they don't shoot overly well from the arc, or the line, they out-rebound their competition every once in awhile, they are just a very tournament savvy team.

Louisville on the other hand is the BEST defensive team in the country, they have Rick Patino as their coach, they out-rebound their opponents 75% of the time and have four guys who can hit a three at any point in the game. Louisville's biggest weakness has been it's poor free throw shooting and its' occasional cold shooting nights.

Let's face it, Arizona has played Utah and f'ing Cleveland State. Arizona has already surpassed its expectations by getting to the sweet 16, have fun on your flight home.

LOUISVILLE

Kansas vs. Michigan St.

I'm not gonna lie, I had Kansas losing to ND State. It looked like it was going to happen with four minutes and then they came up with some huge plays to pull away and finish the first year ND State team off.

Michigan State plays in the Big Ten, who's sucked it up the entire tourney outside of Purdue so....sorry Tom Izzo, you can't play for your entire team of Flint HS grads.

KANSAS (How the F is this team still in this bracket)

WEST

UConn vs. Purdue -

This game is going to be AWESOME. Mark it down on your calendars and watch it. Thabeet, like Broc said in his post, is over-rated and a loser but also happens to be nine feet tall. He has had a BIG problem fouling out in big games and not being around in the end to win a game for his team. You don't remember which games? How about Syracuse, Pitt (one time he didn't need to foul out but was still a loser).

Smart teams will drive the lance in his direction and get him in foul trouble and play a COMPLETELY different team with him on the bench. Guess what, Purdue has no size and they are going to do their best Argentinian NBA impression and fall over every time he gets close to them.

I see Thabeet being a huge loser in this game and not being a big factor (watch him show up and embarrass the crap out of me).

UPSET CITY BABY, PURDUE

Memphass vs. Mizzou

I hate Memphis. They're over-rated 250-2 record in the C-USA makes them a sexy pick for people who know nothing about basketball. You get Dozier in foul trouble and this team has to hit 8,000 threes to win. I will take those odds any day of the week. That being said Memphis is INCREDIBLY TALENTED , for example getting 35 points in the first round from a guy who averages 3, and can run with the best of them...but I still hate them.

Mizzou is a balanced team who doesn't blow you out, but wears you down with their inside out movement and wins. They don't have any amazing players, but they play as a team, they don't turn over the ball (a ridiculous 33-10 assist/TO ratio) and have a great 3 pointer specialist named Kim who's coming off the bench for them.

MIZZOU

EAST

Pitt vs. Xavier

Pitt can, beat any team in the country, and they're a pick for A LOT of people to win this tournament. I don't think they are winning the tournament but they are sure as hell winning this game.

Pitt has two of the best big men in the country in Sam Young and DeJuan Blair as well as a senior point guard in Levance Fields. I have never seen one guy throw around athletes like Dejuan Blair, it looks like he's a 270 pound DT that decided to play basketball with a bunch midgets. I watched the end of the E. Tenn. St. game and at the end of it, they were going back and forth with them with two minutes left. Blair looked at his team in the TO, said "give me the damn ball," and threw people off of him and dunked it in their faces twice in a row. It was one of the most impressive things I've seen this year in college basketball. They are TOO talented to lose this game, sorry Xavier, you had a good run...again.

PITT

Nova vs. Duke

Duke is the only team I hate more than Memphis. Their fans are the whole reason. They walk around like they deserve a national title on a silver platter because they have coach K and blah blah blah, they are Duke. Well fuck you, Nova wins.

NOVA

SOUTH

UNC vs. Gonzaga

Me: Hey Gonzaga, how are you

Gonzaga: Doing pretty well, excited about playing UNC

Me: You're excited to play Ty Lawson?

Gonzaga: Yeah, and Tyler Hansborough

Me: Well you're an idiot

Gonzaga: Why do you say that?

Me: Did you watch the LSU game?

Gonzaga: Yeah, LSU played well

Me: Yeah until Ty Lawson, who by the way looks like he's possessed by some other-worldly demon who wants to win the tournament, decided that he was going to win the game.

Gonzaga: Oh, I didn't see that

Me: Hence you are an idiot

Gonzaga: That's a little harsh don't you think?

Me: Let me put it this way, do you think you're winning this weekend?

Gonzaga: I think we have a pretty good chance

Me: Nice PC answer you douche. Do you think W. KY or Akron are anywhere NEAR as talented as UNC?

Gonzaga: I think they all have their strengths and are all really good teams

Me: Haha, you're like a little 6 year old that doesn't understand the world yet but thinks you're going to be an astronaut. Well guess what, you're not.

UNC WINS

Syracuse vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma has been handed a pretty easy road so far by beating Morgan St. and a Michigan squad that wasn't pumped up for their second round game. Play time is over OU, let me introduce you to Syracuse. They are from the Big East and they've beaten the number one team this year with a white guy who has more grease in his hair than the Fonz. They have a Freshman phenom point guard who has a knack for scoring .

I know everyone hear is sucking on Blake Griffin's pee pee but he's the only stud on that team. Willie Warren is a freshman who either scores 25-30 or has 10. If he doesn't show up, there is NO WAY they win this game.

CUSE

All of these match ups give some interesting Great Eight match ups. Here's what I think and one reason why I think they're advancing

Louisville vs Kansas: Louisville (Rick Patino)

Purdue vs. Mizzou: Mizzou (Seniors don't lose)

Nova vs. Pitt: Nova (I have a feeling that American woke up a beast)

UNC vs. Cuse: UNC (Ty Lawson)

Hopefully we'll get a piece from Broc here soon, he's been out with Wisdom teeth pain for about a month now. He's the expert on NCAA basketball not me, so if you just read this I successfully wasted fifteen minutes of your time...SWEET

Fantasy Baseball Nip Style

"Hey, Jack told me you're pretty good at fantasy baseball and I was wondering if you could help me out with my draft in a couple of days..."

I love fantasy baseball. It is the most difficult fantasy sport to play and by far the most difficult to draft. There are two reasons though, that I like it more than the other fantasy sports:

1) There are so many different kinds of leagues: Rotisserie, Head to Head, 5X5, 4X4, AL/NL only on all of the previous....you get the picture. To make it even more customizable, all leagues have over 25 categories per side (batters/pitching) that can make every league even more different. The thing I like even more is that everyone likes one league setup more than another for whatever reasons. What this means is that only the best of the best are in your specific type of league, making it more competitive than any other kind of fantasy game.

2) There are 25 rounds to draft. Depending on the league you can have to fill anywhere from 9 to 14 offensive spots and 5 to 8 pitching spots. This leaves room for a whole bunch of strategies that you can employ to cruise your way on to victory.

That being said, a fantasy baseball draft can go in 1,000 different ways given the type of value each specific team puts on a player.

I've played for a five years now and I've won twice so, of course, I think my strategy is the best to win...Without further ado...I give you

The 3rd Nipple's Fantasy Baseball Rules of Drafting

1) Offense Wins Championships

What do you think is more consistent a guy swinging a bat or a guy throwing a pitch at a strike zone the size of a milk carton box? The answer should be obvious. Besides the constant ridiculous toll pitching takes on an arm, pitching is insanely hard to predict every year except for a few high priced arms.

Therefore, I think it's safe to take the Texas Rangers philosophy and outscore your opponents in batting all around and hope to steal some points in one or two pitching categories.

Which leads into...

2) Do NOT draft a pitcher before the eighth round. DON'T DO IT.

There isn't a big enough difference in stats from a pitcher you draft in the first eight rounds to one you can get in the later rounds. On top of that, the offensive value you can get at the pick if you picked a pitcher will hurt you big time in later rounds.
Here's an example w/'08 stats:

Player A: 9 wins, 3.45 ERA, 175 K's, 1.39 WHIP

Player B: 12 wins, 4.67 ERA, 200K's, 1.32 WHIP

Player C: 13 wins, 3.47 ERA, 183K's, 1.28 WHIPPlayer D: 12 wins, 4.03 ERA, 172 K's, 1.19 WHIP

So looking at those four pitchers, I would assume if you were to have two of them, you would probably pick the middle two because they rank the highest in the most categories.

Time to use your brain for a minute. Please explain to me why people are drafting player D 80 picks before player C.

Players names and ADP (Average Draft Pick):
A) Felix Hernandez - 88 B) Javier Vazquez - 126 C) Zack Greinke D) Josh Beckett - 68
It doesn't make sense, don't draft pitchers for names or teams...draft for stats, after the tenth round only.

3) Read up and draft, based on, position scarcity.

It's a simple concept, there are WAY more better 1B than there are 2B. There are way more quality OF than there are SS. You get the picture? no. Well italicized voice, let me explain further.

There are these things called tiers in fantasy...read up...and you want to choose positions based on how quick the drop off is in talent. Opinions differ from person to person, but it's pretty safe to say most would agree SS and 2B have the biggest scarcity in talent.

Here's a quick run down of each position by scarcity of talent:

Second Basemen - The top players at this position have the ability to hit 20 home run's and steal 20 bases (Utley, Pedroia, Phillips, Kinsler, Alexei Ramirez).

After that there is only a few players worth having for specific reasons: Roberts (steals, avg.), Uggla (power), Cano/Lopez (both for decent avg. and power). SLEEPER: Jose Lopez...big season coming

Although you can usually get Cano or Lopez late, If you don't have one of the mentioned players on your team you are screwed, there is no way around it.

Shortstop - This crew is a little deeper but not too far off of second base. There is a significant drop off after the first three (Hanley Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins) who are usually off the board in the first round. All three of them have the potential to steal 40+ bases and Rollins and Ramirez could both hit 20+ home runs to boot. This kind of size/power combination is seen nowhere else in the league so spend high and spend early.

Other key players in this position: Troy Tulowitzki (power/avg.), Michael Young (power), Stephen Drew (avg./semi-power)

SLEEPER: Johnny Peralta

Third Baseman - This position is a lot more thin than most people think, but you can find some bargains late so listen up. The top two players are argueablythe top players in fantasy baseball (Wright, Miguel Cabrera). After that there is significant power for 7 more picks (Longoria, A-Roid, A. Ramirez, Youkilis, Atkins, Chris Davis).

After this there isn't a lot of stats around but here they are: Zimmerman (injury risk), Aubrey Huff (solid power #'s in an improving Orioles lineup), AdrianBeltre (can someone say contract year), Jorge Cantu (streaky but when he's on he's as good as any).

SLEEPER: Zimmerman

When I draft I usually try to get one of the top seven, no excuses.

One final note on this topic; don't wait to fill out your OF's. All of the good OF'sare taken by the 15th round, and you should have good OF's in every position.

4) Draft Consistency

What does that mean? Guys that bat over .280.

If a guy bats over .280, he's a pretty damn good hitter. What that means is that he will battle out of slumps, he's likely to give you a consistent week in and week out average and won't have an out of the blue crappy season. This is a big difference between my system of thought and most others. I absolutely will not take a player that bats below .270 (exception Adam Dunn because of his insanely high number of walks and high OPS) because you have to make up for it with other players on your team.

This might seem ridiculous, but you won't hear me saying:

"Ryan Howard is batting .150 over the past month, he's killing my team"

"Pat Burrell hit three home runs tonight!" (Insert Jim Thome, Travis Hafner, Chris Young, David Ortiz or anyone they put the shift on for)

...and that makes me sleep well at night.

5) Try to draft guys who can hit 20 HR and steal some bases while they're at it.

Yeah I know they are few and far between, but they are a HUGE advantage. You should over value them and draft them before everyone else can.

Here's some examples:

Early picks - Ryan Braun (40, 15), Brandon Phillips (24, 25), Jimmy Rollins (18, 45), Hanley Ramirez (33, 33), David Wright (33, 14), Ian Kinsler (17, 33), BJUpton (15, 45), Soriano (24, 20), Lance Berkman (35, 15), Carlos Beltran (24, 24), Utley and Pedroia come to mind too...

Middle Picks - Bobby Abreu (24, 20), Matt Holiday (30, 13), Matt Kemp (17, 33),Granderson (20, 12), Rios (16, 20), Alexei Ramirez (20, 20), Nate Mclouth (23, 23), Corey Hart (20, 20)

Later- Derek Lee (25, 11), Lastings Milledge (15, 20), Johnny Damon (17, 25),Torii Hunter (20, 20), Jayson Werth (25, 20), Joey Votto (30, 10)

You can make a whole team out of 10 steal guys who will kick the crap out of a team with Jose Reyes and BJ Upton with the above guys. I usually like to play it safe and get Rollins to assure me some steals every week though.

6) Chicks dig the long ball.

Guess what you're scored on? Runs, Hits, Home Runs, Avg, SB. Guess what hits four out of those five categories? A Home Run.

Hopefully this gives you a few pretty good ideas about what to do in your draft, let me know if you have any questions and I'll be happy to answer them...Happy Drafting!

It's the Most Wonderful Time....

OOOOOOF THE YEEEEEAR...Drink up and celebrate!

In the past week and a half I have had the following questions asked to me while at work:

"Hey, Jack told me you're pretty good at fantasy baseball and I was wondering if you could help me out with my draft in a couple of days..."

"Who do you thinks winning the tourney this year?"

"Man, can you believe this NFL off season? Do you think the Eagles should trade a first and a third for Boldin or hold their picks for the draft and sign Plaxico?"

"Do you do any work in the office or just read sports stuff all day?"

"You think the Phillies repeating this year?"

"Why not, who do you think will win then genius?"

I know exactly what's going through your head, "who gives a shit Greg, we're all getting asked those questions."

That's the point genius, I FUCKING LOVE THIS MONTH!

Despite the fact that in this month I decided to bless this glorious planet with my existence; it's also the only time in the year where you get asked all of those questions in the span of a week. What a great time of year for a sports nut.

So that being the case, I'm going to answer all of those questions one post at a time while Broc keeps you up to date with his awe-inspiring basketball intellect.

ACC/Big East: Part II

So I know I said I wouldn’t comment on which conference is better, but after preparing for this article, it became very clear to me that the ACC is the best conference this year. Better than the Big East, better than the Pac-10, better than the Big-10. This conference will have 8 teams in the tournament, for those of you rocket scientist's out there, that’s 75% of the conference teams! So let's break down the best teams in the conference and show you why they truly are the tops in the nation.

Best of the ACC

UNC -

The preseason favorite to win it all.  However, as we 

learned throughout the season, one white power forward named Tyler does not make a title team. This team is stocked head to toe, and their first five guys off the bench could form their own Top 25 team, I am sure of it. This teams shoots above 49% for the season, and leads the ACC in every major statistical team category. 

The thing you might not catch on to is that the key to this team is actually Ty Lawson. He has the 3rd best assist/turn-over ratio in the nation, at about 4, and leads the ACC with 6.3 APG. 

Here is the key: every game that UNC has lost this season, Ty Lawson has seen his Ass/TO ration drop below 1. If a team can stop Ty Lawson and force him to turn over the ball, UNC will lose. Although Hansborough leads the ACC with 21 PPG, he doesn’t produce unless Lawson feeds him the ball.

Wake -

Yet another causality of being ranked #1, this team has been up and down all season. Wake is one of the teams that, as a 'Nova fan, scares the crap out of me. With Jeff Teague averaging 20 PPG and shooting above 50% from the field (including behind the arc), and with the combination of Aminu and Johnson averaging over 17 rebounds a game, this team will punish you on both ends of the court. Flat out, they have one of the most prolific offenses in the country. 

However, their weakness is playing in big games on the road. 13-1 at home and 7-4 (which really isn't that bad) on the road. They have to grow up fast, and find the experience that will help them win the big games in the Tourney.  Watch out America, this team could do the dance.

Clemson -

You only have to talk about one person when you talk about Clemson and that is Trevor Booker. The guy averages just about a double-double, he is one of the most under-rated players in the country and I think he will have a coming out party in the dance. With the support of KC Rivers and his 14 PPG, this team is special and has the potential for a big upset. If Booker plays well, he can carry this team all the way to the final four.

Duke -

A buddy of mine at work really represents the Blue Devils fan base. Like most Duke fans: he thinks he is entitled to a title every season, he thinks his basketball mind is superior to the rest of us because Duke was good in the 90's, he's constantly confused with Daniel Radcliffe and generally has trouble doing basic math. HOWEVER, not to worry!  Just like the past couple of years, this team will have an early exit in the tournament, and I will be able to laugh in his face...hopefully in front of a hot girl in a bar. 

Duke feeds off its home crowd so much, that come tournament time, they lose their 6th man, and fall short. But, one of my favorite players this season has got to be Gerald Henderson. This guy is everything you could want from a college player. Averaging 17 PPG and 5 RPG, this guys is athletic, emotional, and dominant in every part of the game.

FSU -

As much as I built up Clemson, this FSU team beat them twice. This team only has one player that averages double digit scoring a game, (Toney Douglas) and their lack of depth will really limit this team from going much further that the 2nd round of the tournament. One big star player, but just not enough to make it all happen.

Best of the Rest

This conference is stacked with teams that will never play easy, give up, or play poorly when called on. Every year, Duke or UNC loses to Maryland and NC State. Miami had a good showing this year as well. BC, NC State, Maryland, and Miami all have a chance to make the tournament, and with the experience that they gained playing in this conference in the regular season, they have every opportunity to beat any team and make it a Sweet trip.

My Case for the ACC

My roommates, college friends, and all the people around Philly always wonder how I could stand admitting that the ACC is better than the Big East this year. Well, its pretty easy when you look at one stat, non-conference play. 

When you watch the ACC and the Big East beat up on each other all season, its hard to put into perspective how good those teams really are. The only way to differentiate is what they did against all the out of conference power teams. 

So lets look: 

- Georgetown lost to Duke. 

- UNC destroyed the Big 10 champions, Michigan St. 

- Wake beat Illinois (2nd place in the Big 10)  

- Clemson beat Baylor and Indiana 

The ACC played so well out of conference, that it is hard to say that they aren’t better, especially when the Big East lost to teams like Texas, Dayton, Tennessee, Cleveland St., Mississippi, and UNLV. I am not saying those teams are bad, but the difference is that the ACC won tough games out of conference and the Big East didn’t.  Sorry Big East, ACC will win.

So, I am getting my wisdom teeth pulled on March 19th, so I get to sit at home and watch all the first round games...Sure to be some great basketball soon, and I hope that my underdogs, Providence and Clemson, can make a show in the tourney!

I'll update you guys with a little more later, MARCH MADNESS BABY!