AFC Championship Predictions

I'm worried about this weeks games. One because no one will shut up about how the Eagles are going to beat the poo out of the Cardinals and how the Steelers are going to beat the poo out of the Ravens. STOP IT, YOU ARE DRIVING ME NUTS!

If you've read some of my previous posts you would hopefully have caught how I love the consistency of teams like the Steelers. They have a heavy run tendency, they play hard, very aggressive defense and they don't change their game plan too much based on who they are playing. They have the mentality of "we are really good at two things (running and defense), if you beat us at those two things, then you deserve to win."

The only problem is that both of these teams have the same game plan, they are the same type of team. So, that being the case, there's only one really good way to look at these two teams, match ups.

Pittsburgh's Offense vs. Baltimore's Defense:

If it were any other week in the season I would really like this match up in Baltimore's favor, but it's not any other week.

If you look at Pittsburgh's drives of their last match up against Baltimore (IN BALTIMORE), half of their drives had six plays or more, but only 3 of 12 resulted in drives of longer than 50 yards.

So, who cares? What does that mean? It means that a healthy Baltimore defense can stalemate Pittsburgh's offense enough to win. But there's three things that are going to change this match up in Pittsburgh's favor: Willie Parker, Baltimore's not healthy, home field advantage.

Last week Willie Parker looked outstanding. He ran for a $1.47 and looked fresh and healthy, something that he did not have going for them in their earlier meeting with the Ravens. He's going to pose a lot of problems for the Ravens becaaaause...

The Ravens are a little banged up right now, specifically, Terrell Suggs. They look tired and slower than usual last week against the Titans. Tired to the tune of 116 yards rushing and 275 yards passing. They got it done, but Chris Johnson averaged over 6 yards a carry against them and that is NOT going to get it done against Pittsburgh. If they let Pittsburgh score more than 14 and do not have a defensive touchdown, they lose.

Home field advantage is a big thing for the Steelers. They went 7-2 this season at home, only losing to the Giants and the Colts. I think the big thing that gives them an advantage in Heinz field is kicking field goals. Reed is going to be called on three times at least in this game and his experience to me, is going to be the difference.

The major "Wild Card" in this whole game is Big Ben. We all know, he can be incredibly unpredictable. If he gets rushed, which is likely to happen in this game, he trusts his ability to make plays a little too much and makes some BIG turnovers in games. If he is classic Big Ben, doesn't try to do too much, manages the game well and throws the deep ball to Santonio well, they will win. If he's scrambling and making awkward throws, they will lose. It's up to you O line, get it done.

Baltimore's Offense vs. Pittsburgh's Defense:

I think that Baltimore's offense sucks. I think Willis McGayHee is over-rated, I think Derick Mason and whoever the hell is on the other side of the field suck and most of all I hate that when they get a first down in their home field there's a part of the crowd that says "Move them chains, move them chains, move them chains, WOO!"

They do get the job done though don't they? Le'ron McLain has come in and bruised and battered defenses to the tune of 900 yards and 10 touchdowns. Rookie Joe Flacco has thrown for 3,000 yards and 14 TD's (12 int's).

Wait...WTF

How is that getting the job done? Are you kidding me? How unimpressive are those stats?

Unimpressive enough that they better hope to god Ed Reed runs back two int's for TD's (which is completely possible). This offense is about to run up against the best defense in the league, let alone the best rushing defense in the league. I look forward to you developing a game plan to score some points. The only thing I can possibly think of that is in your favor revolves around Troy Polomalu's health.

In Summary:

Everything points to Pittsburgh winning this game. If Pittsburgh scores more than two TD's, they will win. If Pittsburgh gets a defensive TD, they will win. If Baltimore doesn't get more than one turnover, they will lose.

Therefore, unless a perfect storm happens for Baltimore...Pittsburgh is winning this game.